The Politics of Baseball Fandom

Source: New York Times

What if the USA drew our state lines with America’s pastime in mind? One of my favorite maps, from the New York Times, shows allegiances to baseball teams at the county and zip code level across the United States, based on aggregated Facebook “likes.” I used this map, as well as 2012 Presidential Election results from the NYT, to investigate the cultural politics of baseball.

When determining which team took which county, I tended to use a plurality criterion- whichever team had the highest percentage took the county. Contiguous borders were an important consideration. In order to control for the possibility of incredibly small states, if a number of sparsely populated counties bucked the regional trend, they tended to be lumped in with the dominant nearby team anyway. Some areas of the country show no allegiance to geographically close teams, and defaulted to rooting for powerhouse national teams like the Yankees and Red Sox. When these contiguous areas carried enough population, they were treated as their own states.

[One huge point of contention up-front: I could not find election results at the zip code level, which occasionally caused problems in very populous counties. The most notable example of this is Cook County, Illinois, home of Chicago and its two teams, the Cubs on the Northside and the White Sox on the Southside. According to the NYT map, the slight plurality of Cook County roots for the Cubs, 40% to 38%. The Cubs and White Sox fans have relatively defined borders within the city of Chicago, America’s 3^rd largest metropolis, and with over 5 million residents, assigning Cook County is a major task. Were zip code level statistics available, I would have split the county in half between the teams. Alas, I could not. I decided to override the plurality and assign Cook County to the White Sox. I did this for several reasons. Firstly, the White Sox, though they control a significant area, would not have a populous enough fan base to warrant their own state without some percentage of Cook County. On the contrary, the Cubs are the preferred team of the general Midwest, and thus have more than enough fans to warrant statehood without Cook County. Secondly, the White Sox control more territory within the city of Chicago than the Cubs. The White Sox control the southern and western portions of the city, with the Cubs controlling the northern portion as well as the northern suburbs of the city that happen to fall within Cook County. This distribution poses the issue that Wrigley Field now falls within the boundaries of White Sox territory, an abomination to a baseball fan, but there is one positive to this whole debacle: both of Chicago’s teams are relevant. Excluding the LA Angels, who play in Anaheim, nearly as far from Dodger Stadium as Oriole Park is from Nationals Park, the other urban areas with multiple baseball teams are fully dominated by the bigger dog. The Mets and Athletics control no counties in the United States, including the county their own stadiums are based in, due to the dominance of the Yankees and Giants, respectively. So, I apologize to Chicagoland for this mess, but you can at least take solace in knowing that the Windy City stands alone when it comes to baseball fans.]

Major League Baseball consists of 30 teams, with the Toronto Blue Jays obviously lying outside of the United States. Since the Mets and A’s control no counties, there are 27 states based on baseball teams, as well as 9 states made from leftover areas of the country that did not show allegiances based on geography, for a total of 36. Given that each state needs at least one Representative, and each Representative is supposed to represent a similar number of constituents, the House of Representatives in this scenario would increase to 526 members from our current 435. The Senate would decrease from 100 members to 72 members, reflecting the decrease in the number of states. Finally, since the Nationals would now get their own state, Washington, DC would have proper Congressional representation instead of the 3 delegates to the Electoral College that they have now. In sum, the Electoral College would consist of 598 votes. In this scenario, President Obama still would have won the 2012 election, but by the much smaller margin of 313-285, compared to the actual result of 332-206.

Obviously, this exercise is flawed. Only a certain number of cities have teams, and these allegiances would change drastically if teams were created within the current territory of other clubs. What I do find interesting, however, is which areas are willing to align themselves with regional powers, and which areas instead default to rooting for national teams. These differences may indicate deeper cultural rifts. I may do this exercise with NFL and NBA teams as well, as similar maps exist for those sports, and then cross-reference against this exercise to see where these regional allegiances change.

Let’s examine the 36 redrawn states more closely, starting with the least populous and working our way up.

36. Nebraska

Population: 603,058                Electoral Votes: 3

Obama: 36.71%                      Romney: 61.53%

As currently constructed, the state of Nebraska is torn between allegiances to the Twins to the North, the Rockies to the West, the Royals to the South, and the Cubs to the East. With most of its borders now eaten away by outside teams, and with no club to call their own, the interior of Nebraska is left as America’s smallest state. Unsurprisingly, this new rural state is the 2^nd reddest in the country, with Romney crushing Obama by nearly 25% of the vote. Luckily for Nebraska, the state capital and 2^nd largest city of Lincoln remains within the territory.

Capital Suggestion: Lincoln

35. Alaska

Population: 736,732                Electoral Votes: 3

Obama: 41.27%                      Romney: 55.30%

Alaska maintains its present shape and construction. While the southeastern portion of Alaska maintains allegiance to the regional power of the Seattle Mariners, the bulk of Alaska’s territory is unorganized by county, which makes it difficult to acquire county-level election results, and thus I decided to leave Alaska unaltered.

Capital Suggestion: Juneau

34. Charlotte

Population: 1,231,107             Electoral Votes: 4

Obama: 56.22%                      Romney: 42.89%

In this scenario, Charlotte gets to breakaway from its surrounding environs. Largely due to the city’s status as a banking industry town, the Yankees dominate Mecklenburg and Union Counties in present North Carolina. Entrapped by a circular ring of Braves territory, Charlotte is nonetheless larger than 8 of our current states, and is notably liberal, with Obama besting Romney by double digits.

Capital Suggestion: Charlotte

33. Hawaii

Population: 1,419,561             Electoral Votes: 4

Obama: 70.57%                      Romney: 27.82%

Like Alaska, Hawaii remains as presently constructed, and is the bluest state in this scenario.

Capital Suggestion: Honolulu

32. New Mexico

Population: 2,634,483             Electoral Votes: 6

Obama: 57.64%                      Romney: 38.64%

New Mexico loses Colfax County to the Rockies, and several eastern counties to the Rangers, but picks up 3 counties in western Texas, most notably the populous city of El Paso, while keeping hold of Albuquerque and Santa Fe. In this scenario, New Mexico is a Democratic stronghold.

Capital Suggestion: Santa Fe

31. Marlin

Population: 3,334,622             Electoral Votes: 8

Obama: 63.87%                      Romney: 35.63%

Finally, a state with a baseball team! Consisting of Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties, this state is dominated by the hub of Miami, and is staunchly blue. With 2 international airports, glorious beaches, and a cultural beacon of Latin America, the state of Marlin would undoubtedly be a great place to visit. But, this is the least populous baseball state and the Marlins notoriously suffer from low fan commitment. Not shockingly, the people of Miami have lots of other entertainment options.

Capital Suggestion: Miami

30. Padre

Population: 3,442,522             Electoral Votes: 8

Obama: 51.86%                      Romney: 46.11%

Like Marlin, Padre has 8 electoral votes and great weather. Padre consists of the greatly populated San Diego County as well as the desert county of Imperial, which is nominally Dodger territory, but separated from the rest of that fan base by the Angels-leaning Riverside County. Padre leans blue, and is the site of the important international border with Tijuana in Mexico.

Capital Suggestion: San Diego

29. Louisiana

Population: 3,976,387             Electoral Votes: 9

Obama: 41.55%                      Romney: 56.77%

Consisting of the bulk of current Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas, this version of Louisiana rejects influences from the Cardinals, Rangers, Astros and Braves, reflecting the insular nature of the old French state. Louisiana remains deeply red.

Capital Suggestion: Baton Rouge

28. Royal

Population: 4,396,976             Electoral Votes: 9

Obama: 41.60%                      Romney: 56.34%

Royal stretches into portions of present Nebraska and Iowa, but most of the state consists of northwestern Missouri and the eastern majority of Kansas. While mostly rural and deeply red, Royal contains recognizable urban centers like Kansas City and Wichita.

Capital Suggestion: Topeka

27. Pirate

Population: 4,536,888             Electoral Votes: 10

Obama: 45.04%                      Romney: 53.53%

Based in Pittsburgh, Paris of the Appalachians, Pirate consists of the bulk of western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, and portions of Ohio and Maryland. Pittsburgh, the whitest metropolitan region in the country, serves as the beating heart of this solid red state.

Capital Suggestion: Pittsburgh

26. Ray

Population: 4,599,022             Electoral Votes: 10

Obama: 48.48%                      Romney: 50.46%

Ray consists of the Tampa Bay area and its exurbs. The state leans red, but could swing in other elections.

Capital Suggestion: Tampa

25. Great Basin

Population: 4,658,821             Electoral Votes: 10

Obama: 28.80%                      Romney: 68.64%

Great Basin covers a lot of territory in the western United States. Constructed from portions of Utah, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, this is the reddest state in the country, and contains a high proportion of Mormon residents. Great Basin is the third most populous state in this scenario made from leftover territory.

Capital Suggestion: Idaho Falls

24. Indian

Population: 4,886,034             Electoral Votes: 10

Obama: 54.75%                      Romney: 43.66%

Note to Cleveland: please change your racist team name. Native peoples aren’t mascots. The state of Indian (until the name change) consists of Northeast Ohio, including Cleveland, Akron, Canton and Youngstown. The state is solidly blue.

Capital Suggestion: Cleveland

23. Oriole

Population: 5,101,028             Electoral Votes: 10

Obama: 49.70%                      Romney: 48.42%

Although present Maryland would remain solidly blue even if it were to lose the staunchly liberal DC suburb counties of Montgomery, Prince George’s and Charles, the addition of conservative portions of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia make the state of Oriole a tight swing state with a slight blue lean. Were the voter turnout to increase in Baltimore, the slight lean would likely strengthen.

Capital Suggestion: Annapolis

22. National

Population: 5,456,570             Electoral Votes: 11

Obama: 69.21%                      Romney: 29.65%

Ding ding, another dumb team name alert! (In case you couldn’t guess, I’m from Baltimore). The state of National finally provides DC with proper representation, and the DMV (DC-MD-VA for those not in the know) serves as the third most liberal state in this scenario, with Obama destroying Romney.

Capital Suggestion: Washington, DC (obviously)

21. Angel

Population: 5,474,786             Electoral Votes: 11

Obama: 46.23%                      Romney: 51.63%

The state of Angel consists of Orange and Riverside counties in present California. Containing many of the LA area’s conservatives, Angel is fairly solidly red.

Capital Suggestion: Irvine

20. Brewer

Population: 5,514,809             Electoral Votes: 11

Obama: 52.97%                      Romney: 45.93%

Present Wisconsin steals some counties in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, as well as one county in northwestern Iowa, while swapping counties with the Twins along the Minnesota border. With not much changed, Brewer is a fairly blue state.

Capital Suggestion: Madison

19. Rocky

Population: 6,514,504             Electoral Votes: 13

Obama: 47.67%                      Romney: 49.97%

While present Colorado trends blue, the addition of portions of Utah, Nebraska, Montana, Kansas, South Dakota and New Mexico turns Rocky into a red-leaning swing state. At least the liberals of Colorado can comfort themselves with skiing and for-now legal recreational pot.

Capital Suggestion: Denver

18. White Sock

Population: 6,714,710             Electoral Votes: 13

Obama: 69.79%                      Romney: 28.84%

Another team name that sounds stupid as a state. White Sock consists of Chicago (see note at the start about this point) and its southern and western suburbs like Joliet. White Sock is the 2^nd most liberal state in the country in this scenario, unsurprising given that the bulk of the population lives in a major metropolis.

Capital Suggestion: Chicago

17. Diamondback

Population: 6,731,484             Electoral Votes: 13

Obama: 44.12%                      Romney: 54.19%

Arizona remains unchanged. Way to be boring, Arizona.

Capital Suggestion: Phoenix

16. Twin

Population: 7,615,240             Electoral Votes: 15

Obama: 49.91%                      Romney: 48.06%

With portions of Nebraska, Montana, Iowa and Wisconsin, the vast majority of Minnesota and South Dakota, and all of North Dakota, Twin is an expansive swing state with a liberal lean.

Capital Suggestion: Fargo

15. Astro

Population:  7,620,426            Electoral Votes: 15

Obama: 41.57%                      Romney: 57.20%

Consisting of Houston and its surrounding environs, Astro is a Republican stronghold that definitely resents its neighboring state of Ranger.

Capital Suggestion: Houston

14. Florida

Population: 9,028,429             Electoral Votes: 19

Obama: 47.64%                      Romney: 51.50%

Made from the portions of present Florida not stripped away by Ray, Marlin and Brave, Florida in this scenario remains in the upper half of populous states. With settlements like Cape Coral, Orlando, Jacksonville and Gainesville, and most of present Florida’s beaches, this Florida leans red.

Capital Suggestion: Orlando

13. Philly

Population: 10,234,109           Electoral Votes: 19

Obama: 57.33%                      Romney: 41.47%

A name that makes perfect sense! With South Jersey, northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania within its borders, Philly has glorious beaches, great farmland and strong urban centers. Dominated by the staunch liberalism of the heavily populated Philadelphia, Philly is a Democratic stronghold.

Capital Suggestion: Philadelphia (more central than Harrisburg)

12. Tiger

Population: 10,361,576           Electoral Votes: 19

Obama: 54.76%                      Romney: 44.26%

Retaining most of present Michigan and picking up northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, Tiger is safely blue with the addition of Toledo.

Capital Suggestion: Lansing

11. Red

Population: 11,016,845           Electoral Votes: 20

Obama: 42.26%                      Romney: 56.03%

Fitting name. With the bottom half of Ohio, eastern Indiana, western West Virginia and the bulk of Kentucky, Red is highly populous and very Republican. Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Springfield and Charleston all fall within the state, giving Red an interesting mix of Southern, Appalachian and Midwestern culture.

Capital Suggestion: Cincinnati

10. Virginialina

Population: 11,330,699           Electoral Votes: 21

Obama: 50.28%                      Romney: 48.53%

The largest state made from leftover parts, Virginialina consists of Eastern NC, most of the NC Piedmont, Georgetown and Myrtle Beach in South Carolina, southeastern West Virginia, and the vast majority of Virginia. With much of the conservative Appalachian region ceded to the Braves, the mainly piedmont and coastal state of Virginialina would be a left-leaning swing state. With Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Durham, Raleigh, Fayetteville, Wilmington, Norfolk, Roanoke and Richmond, the state would have numerous urban areas to choose from. The state would also contain the great academic institutions of Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, NC State, Virginia Tech and UVA, making it a research powerhouse.

Capital Suggestion: The current state capitals of Richmond and Raleigh are both located fairly close to borders. Norfolk is too far from the western portions of the state. Not really any great choices. Leave it to a popular vote.

9. Mariner

Population: 11,342,679           Electoral Votes: 21

Obama: 54.88%                      Romney: 42.50%

Largely contemporaneous with the Pacific Northwest region, Mariner includes all of Washington, most of Oregon, and portions of Idaho and Montana. With the stereotypically liberal centers of Seattle and Portland, Mariner is a safely blue state.

Capital Suggestion: Could put it in Spokane for centrality purposes, but it should probably be halfway between Seattle and Portland.

8. Red Sock

Population: 11,424,971           Electoral Votes: 21

Obama: 59.37%                      Romney: 38.83%

The Munson-Nixon line is in full effect. The Red Sox and Yankees battle over Connecticut, and wage minor conflicts to steal territory from each other in Vermont and Upstate New York. This state is contemporaneous with New England, minus Hartford and southwest Connecticut (which is just north New York City anyway). Red Sock, as expected, is staunchly liberal.

Capital Suggestion: Boston

7. Cardinal

Population: 12,576,376           Electoral Votes: 23

Obama: 42.23%                      Romney: 55.86%

As Deadspin frequently points out, Cardinals fans are the worst- the NL version of the Yankees, but with even more self-seriousness about the “sanctity of the game.” This coming from a franchise known for having Mark McGwire. Anyway, it turns out that Arkansas, Oklahoma, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi are pretty conservative places, and Cardinal is a Republican stronghold accordingly.

Capital Suggestion: St. Louis

6. Cub

Population: 13,519,577           Electoral Votes: 24

Obama: 48.43%                      Romney: 49.90%

The Cardinals’ arch rival, the Cubs, control more populous territory. However, without Chicago (again, see the beginning for this explanation), Cubs nation is a right-leaning swing state comprised of parts of Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Iowa, and Nebraska.

Capital Suggestion: Davenport

5. Giant

Population: 16,308,081           Electoral Votes: 29

Obama: 61.01%                      Romney: 36.39%

Southern Oregon, Northern California and Western Nevada make up Giant, a largely populated state anchored by San Francisco and the Bay region. Given this area’s notoriety for liberalism, it should come as no surprise that Giant is staunchly Democratic.

Capital Suggestion: Sacramento

4. Dodger

Population: 16,800,215           Electoral Votes: 30

Obama: 61.42%                      Romney: 36.32%

Dodger controls the most populous portions of southern California, and is slightly bigger and more liberal than its northern neighbor, Giant. It might come as a surprise that this LA-centric state is more liberal than San Francisco’s state, but with Giant taking on the conservative Central Valley, and the red regions of western Nevada and southern Oregon, and with Dodger ceding the conservative area of Orange County while picking up the liberal Las Vegas, Dodger comes out the liberal victor.

Capital Suggestion: Los Angeles

3. Ranger

Population: 22,383,906           Electoral Votes: 39

Obama: 39.35%                      Romney: 59.33%

I haven’t run the land area numbers, but Ranger likely has the most expansive territory aside from Alaska. With the vast majority of Texas, most of Oklahoma, and portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Kansas, Ranger is the reimagined version of Texas. Despite the efforts of Austin, this state is predictably a Republican stronghold. Note: I gave Yankee-supporting portions of Oklahoma to Ranger for geographical simplicity.

Capital Suggestion: Dallas

2. Yankee

Population: 30,617,019           Electoral Votes: 53

Obama: 61.11%                      Romney: 37.65%

Shocker! America’s most popular and most hated team doesn’t come out on top in this scenario, entirely due to the need for contiguous borders. Nearly all of New York, northern New Jersey, northern Pennsylvania, southwestern Connecticut and one county in Vermont make up the state of Yankee. Despite the conservatism of the rural areas of this state, New York City still dominates the political landscape, and Yankee is staunchly Democratic.

Capital Suggestion: Albany

1. Brave

Population: 32,326,697           Electoral Votes: 56

Obama: 40.81%                      Romney: 57.98%

Note: another racist name. Please change. Atlanta’s team seems to serve as a lightning rod for shared southern identity. The Braves are truly a regional powerhouse, and the state of Brave contains all of Georgia and Alabama, most of Mississippi and South Carolina, large chunks of Tennessee and North Carolina, small parts of Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana, as well as the Florida panhandle. Roughly halfway between the populations of present California and Texas, Brave is strong Republican territory, unsurprising for the Bible Belt.

Capital Suggestion: Atlanta